Governments should be strengthened to "increased lack" world oil markets and the risk of further sharp price increases over the next few years, the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday.
While the impact of the Kosovars can only be a "little constraint on world economic growth in the medium and long term, the IMF said," such a benign impact on global growth should not be granted by a lack of development or the impact could be more important. "
"In practice, it is difficult to distinguish between unexpected changes in scarcity of oil and more traditional oil supply shocks, particularly temporary, short-term, when many of the consequences for the world economy will be like" the IMF said in a chapter of the World Economic Outlook released Thursday.
The full report will be released next week before the spring meeting of the IMF, where increasing commodity prices are expected to be discussed. The Fund called on political leaders around the world to ensure that their economies are designed for handling unexpected changes to oil supplies and prices — for example, by reducing fuel subsidies for the protection of the financial positions of the Governmentsbut also strengthen safety nets for the poor — and to encourage the promotion of alternative sources of energy policies.
Strong increase in oil demand from emerging market economies, coupled with concerns about possible supply disruptions from the Middle East, pushed prices up more than 25% the previous year. Crude oil in the United States handled about $ 109 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude in Europe traded near $ 122 a barrel.
With a nod to analysts who say the world oil production peaking will soon or has already started to decline, the report from the IMF acknowledged that maturing oil fields will restrict certain producers ' ability to add new capacity.
The return of annual growth of 1.8% of world oil production seen from 1981-2005 "seems unlikely," the Fund said. "The range of possibilities from larger than a direct voltage supply growth reduction in oil production, most permanently or temporarily."
The IMF's forecasts showed that the slowdown in the growth of world oil supplies by one percent, at 0.8%, will slow annual growth of real GDP of less than 0.25% of the medium and long term. Still, said the transfer of wealth from petroleum importers exporters will increase the flow of capital and enlarged current account imbalances.
However, economists warned the Fund for the potential for "large and sudden changes due to geopolitical risk in the oil market. "Adverse effects could be much higher, depending on the extent and evolution of the scarcity of oil and the global economy's ability to cope with the increased scarcity."
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