Posted initially in China real time.
China eked out a small trade surplus in March, the Government said, but he is still a deficit of 1.02 billion dollars in the first quarter, its first quarterly deficit in seven years, highlighting the impact of the increase in the price of imported commodities with greater export nation in the world. Analysts weigh:
The situation will be very different if commodity prices had not risen in the last 12 months. We estimate that in the first quarter surplus would be $ 25bn if China had paid the same price for the imports of essential goods, as it did a year ago. Imports of China commodities last month was relatively weak in volume terms …The trade surplus has undeniably limit, even if the driver of the shift is relaunching consumer spending that the Government has long said it wants to be an engineer. This means that it will prove to be short-lived, if it is not sustained by the current commodity prices. – Mark Williams, capital economics
Data measured — China recorded its first quarterly trade deficit from 2004 — may propose some significant progress of readjustment agenda, but it is still too early to make such a bold call. February s deficit was large enough to capture the whole quarter deficit, and in March data demonstrating a return to surplus — albeit a rather mild — it is clear where the trend is heading. 2011 you should see a surplus of around 250 billion dollars, to around 3,5% of GDP projected, although rather weak Q1 is indicative of the downside risks facing China internationally, and as such, full-year surplus be less thanwhat you initially expected. – Xianfang Ren and up Alistair Thornton, IHS Global Insight
Development of trade will remain strong due to robust real economy and the increase in prices, although I see some moderation in the growth of trade is partly due to base effects. Conditions are worse for China for surging oil prices, so that it can be shrunk much faster than the market had expected China s trade surplus. Monthly deficits are still possible, but for the entire year, China s trade is most likely stay in surplus (although smaller). However, we now see more risk to our forecast of US $ 150bn trade surplus in 2011. – Ting Lu, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch
Visible impact from Japan earthquake. Increase of imports from Japan, which slowed down in March, even compared to Feb. Meanwhile, the increase in exports to Japan held steady, recovering stronger levels pre-Feb. Disturbances by the quake and its aftershocks new attack will probably continue to have a similar effect in the coming months. The surplus with the United States and the EU both recovered from Feb, but both the second lowest level since last April. Peng-Keng, Minggao Shen Shuang Ding, and Ben Wei, Citigroup
– Compiled by Aaron Back
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